Review of "The Drunkard's Walk: How Randomness Rules Our Lives" by Leonard Mlodinow

    

Lots of people might think they can compute the odds that something will happen. For instance, If my favorite baseball team is playing an opponent with inferior stats I might be pretty sure my guys will win....and place a small wager. But random chance - which is the rule rather than the exception - could trip me up. A so-so batter on the other team might miraculously hit a grand slam home run! 😲 In this book Leonard Mlodinow explains how randomness affects our lives. For example, a publisher rejected George Orwell's book 'Animal Farm' with the remark "it's impossible to publish animal books in the U.S." And before he became successful author Tony Hillerman was advised "to get rid of all that Indian stuff." John Grisham's books were repeatedly rejected at first. And J.K. Rowling's first Harry Potter book was rebuffed a number of times. These writers persisted and eventually happened on the right publisher....but other (perhaps equally talented) authors didn't. Random chance at work! Of course if we really want to figure out how likely it is that something will (or won't) happen we have to rely on math. In this book Mlodinow elucidates some of the math concepts behind probability theory and statistics - a lot of which is complex and requires re-reading a couple of times (for me anyway). So I'll just give a very basic illustration. Suppose Don picks up two coins and tosses them. He wants to know how likely it is he'll get one head. Don figures the possible outcomes are: zero heads, one head, or two heads. So, he thinks there's a 1 in 3 likelihood. Nope. Don has to consider all the possible sequences: heads-heads; heads-tails; tails-heads; and tails-tails. Two possible outcomes yield one head - so the chances are 1 in 2 (50%). A basic principal of probability theory is that the chances of an event happening depends on the number of ways it can occur. Here's another example: In 1996 the Atlanta Braves beat the New York Yankees in the first two games of the World Series (where the first team that wins four games is the victor). So, what was the chance the Yankees would make a comeback and win the series - assuming the teams are equally matched? After explaining all the possible ways the Yankees could win the remaining games, Mlodinow calculates that the Yankees had a 6 in 32 chance of winning the series, or about 19%. The Braves had a 26 in 32 chance of winning the series, or about 81%. Against the odds, the Yankees won! Mlodinow goes on to explain that - if one team was better than the other - that would weigh into the calculations and the odds would be different. This same type of reasoning can be applied to competing businesses, television shows, movies, whatever. And even if the odds favor the 'better contender', sometimes - by pure chance - the 'worse contender' will win. Of course 'experts' try to predict all kinds of things: whether stocks will go up; if a superhero movie will be No. 1 at the box office; whether Toyotas will sell better than Buicks; if a certain horse will win the Triple Crown; and so forth. And Mlodinow explains that - no matter how 'knowledgeable' the maven - the predictions might be wrong. The reason: our brains aren't wired to do probability problems very well. 🥴 In the book, Mlodinow discusses Pascal's triangle, the Bell Curve, random number generators, the best strategy for picking the 'correct door' on 'Let's Make a Deal', the likelihood a woman carrying fraternal twins will have two girls, whether scolding a worker who does badly and praising a worker who does well makes a difference in their future performance, one man's strategy for winning at roulette....all kinds of interesting stuff. Pascal's Triangle Bell Curve Let's Make A Deal Twins The book is informative and contains a lot of fascinating stories about the philosophers and mathematicians who developed probability theory, how they did it, and why (usually having something to do with gambling.... ha ha ha). I enjoyed the book and would recommend it to readers interested in the subject. Rating: 4 stars

Review of "The Girl and The Gravedigger: An Inspector Leopold von Herzfeldt Mystery" by Oliver Pötzsch

  

 

 

Vienna, Austria, 1894: The Vienna Museum of Art History is the repository of numerous treasures from ancient Egypt - some on display, and some stored for future study.



A recently arrived mummy would have lain undisturbed in the storage room for years if a larcenous cleaning woman hadn't found the room inadvertently unlocked.





The cleaner, having heard mummies were buried with jewels and gold, unwrapped the relic's bandages, looking for valuables. Instead, the woman found the dead body of Egyptologist Alfons Strössner, with green emeralds in his eye sockets. The cleaner's screams echoed throughout the building.



The death of Professor Strössner adds to rumors of a curse, because other Egyptologists who'd recently opened an Egyptian tomb - and removed the contents - had also died.

Stylish Police Inspector Leopold von Herzfeldt - who's an advocate of 'new' investigative methods, and who doesn't believe in Egyptian curses - gets the Strössner case.



When Leo interviews Professor Strössner's daughter Charlotte - who looks like Cleopatra- she expresses complete bewilderment. Charlotte thought her father was in Egypt doing research, and she even produces letters Strössner sent from the Middle East.



Further investigation leads von Herzfeldt to the Vienna Archaeological Society, whose members include Austria's rich and elite, including Archduke Rainer Ferdinand.



This pretentious crowd doesn't appreciate Leopold coming around, but he perseveres, makes startling discoveries, and eventually unveils the truth.

In addition to the killing of Professor Strössner, the Vienna police are concerned with two other cases. One is the death of a zookeeper in the lion's cage, which is blamed on an African chief in an 'ethnic' exhibit.



Police Detective Von Hertzfeld gets embroiled in the zookeeper's murder by his girlfriend, Julia Wolf, who works as a crime scene photographer and a chanteuse.





Julia believes the African chief arrested for killing the zookeeper is innocent, and she wants Leo to help the man.

Vienna's other police investigation involves a serial killer who's murdering handsome young male prostitutes and cutting off their genitalia.



The serial killer case draws in the entire police department, and Leo and Chief Inspector Paul Leinkirchner become the lead detectives. This is tricky because Leo has Jewish ancestry and Leinkirchner is openly antisemitic.





During the serial killer investigation, Leo - who always dresses in the height of fashion - (literally) gets down in the dirt and mud in his best suit. (I winced at the despoilment of this finery and hoped Vienna had good cleaners. 😊)

As events progress, perpetrators are uncovered, and there's even a 'Hercule Poirot' moment when Leo reveals a surprising miscreant.



One of the most interesting characters in the story is Augustin Rothmayer, a gravedigger at Vienna Central Cemetery. Rothmayer is a brilliant eccentric who's writing a book called 'Death Rites Around the World'.



Colorful excerpts from Rothmayer's book are scattered through the novel. For example, in ancient Egypt, a dead pharaoh's wife and servants were killed and buried with him. (Nothing in this world would have induced me to marry a pharaoh. 😠) Rothmayer helps with all the police investigations in his own unique fashion.



Besides penning an engaging police procedural, author Oliver Pötzsch gives us a peek at the ambiance of old Vienna. The story mentions a tasteful 'upper class' brothel; a homeless encampment in the sewers; horsecar trams; the Imperial Court Library in the Hofburg palace; theater shows; expensive restaurants; nightclubs; and more. All this is a nice complement to the story.



I enjoyed the novel and recommend it to mystery fans.

I listened to the audiobook, narrated by Rupert Bush, who does a fine job.

Thanks to Netgalley, Oliver Pötzsch, and HarperAudio for a ARC of the book. 

 Rating: 4 stars 

Review of "Wolf Worm: A Suspense/Horror Novel" by T. Kingfisher

 

Author T. Kingfisher is well-known for her horror novels, and this is her latest macabre story. If you're easily creeped out, or have an insect phobia, this isn't the book for you.

****

It's 1899, and thirty-year-old Sonia Wilson is a naturalist and artist who worked with her father until he died. Afterwards, with no good job offers, Sonia was obligated to teach watercolor painting in a Wilmington, North Carolina girls' school, a low-paying job with no future prospects.



Consequently, Sonia is happy to accept a job offer from the entomologist Dr. Matthias Halder, who needs an illustrator for his book about parasitic insects.



Dr. Halder sends Sonia a train ticket, but there's no one waiting at the Chatham, North Carolina train station when Sonia arrives in the late afternoon.



There IS a banner reading 'Home of the World Famous Chatham Rabbit.' Sonia later learns Chatham rabbits are famous for being the main ingredient in delicious stews.




Rabbit Stew

Dr. Halder's residence, Halder House, is ten miles from the train station, and Sonia is getting ready to walk when she's offered a buggy ride with Mr. Asa Phelps. Mr. Phelps is a grim, God-fearing man who tells Sonia it's not safe to walk in the evening, because there are devils in the woods. Sonia is skeptical about this story, but little does she know!!



After Sonia gets to Halder House, she meets the staff: Mrs. Kent, a Black woman, is the housekeeper/cook;



Mr. Kent, a White man, is the caretaker/handyman;



and there's a young maid called Sally.



There's also a cat named Smiley, who rules the roost.



The mixed race couple, the maid, and the cat are friendly to Sally, in contrast to Dr. Halder - a rigid man prone to shouting, who's concerned only with his 'very important' work.



In Halder House, Sonia is installed in quarters called 'the studio', whose previous occupant left behind paints, brushes, palettes, sketchbooks, beautiful paintings of insects, and more.



Dr. Halder gives Sonia her assignments, to paint Cochliomyia hominivorax, the screwworm fly (aka botworm fly); screwworm fly larvae; other botflies; and more.




Screwworm Fly


Screwworm Fly Larva

Later, Dr. Halder tells Sonia the screwworm fly is a parasite whose larvae (maggots) eat the living tissue of warm-blooded animals, such as horses, cattle, goats, sheep, humans, and so on. Dr. Halder goes on to describe screwworm infections, and - unfortunately for Sonia - she later encounters an infested raccoon.



Sonia settles in at Halder House, does her work, and meets the housekeeper's friend, Ma Kersey, an indigenous Lumbee. Ma Kersey is a healer and midwife, as well as source of supernatural lore about North Carolina, and stories about Dr. Halder.



Dr. Halder frequently wanders through the woods at night, and when Sonia - an inveterate nosybody - surreptitiously follows Dr. Halder, she sees him enter a locked shed.



Eventually, Sonia enters the shed herself, and the horror part of the book ensues.


Botfly larva on human skin

Before that time, however, Sonia's first person narration demonstrates a wry sense of humor, and a tendency to make fun of herself.



The novel has wonderful word-pictures of Chatham's woodsy scenery.....



......and nightmare-inducing descriptions of screwworm fly infestations.


Squirrel with a botworm infestation

I like the scenes of Sonia doing her watercolor illustrations, which provide a glimpse of how the artist works, and the problems she encounters. Who knew the color 'coral' was so hard to get right.😊

If you can keep turning the pages, this spooky story will take you strange places. Strictly for horror fans.

I listened to the audiobook, narrated by Mary Robinette Kowal, who does a fine job.

Thanks to Netgalley, T.Kingfisher, and Macmillan audio for a ARC of the book. 

 Rating: 4 stars